There was a time when President Donald Trump just announced his initial bid for re-election in 2024, and it caught markets off guard.
The stock market had been expecting a Trump presidency to continue for another four years, but now there’s a fresh wrinkle: the possibility that Trump could be a candidate in 2024.
That means that, even if Trump is defeated in 2020, he could still have a significant impact on markets over the next four years.
Trump’s 2024 bid could have a number of implications for markets, including:
- Uncertainty over Trump’s policies: Trump’s policies have been a key individual of market performance over the past four years. If Trump was not re-elected in 2020, it’s unclear what policies President Biden or President Warren would pursue. That could create uncertainty for markets.
- The Fed’s reaction: Trump has been a critic of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. If Trump is not re-elected, the Fed could pursue a more aggressive policy path, which could be positive for markets.
- Geopolitical risk: Trump’s policies have created tensions with some of America’s key trading partners. If Trump is not re-elected, it’s possible that these tensions could ease, which could be positive for markets.